President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will hold a virtual meeting next week, the White House announced on Friday, amid rising tensions and deepening mistrust between the world’s two largest economies.
The meeting, scheduled for Monday, will be the first direct conversation between the two leaders since February, when they spoke by phone for two hours. It will also be the first time they will see each other face-to-face since they met in Bali, Indonesia, a year ago at the G20 summit.
According to the White House, the meeting will cover a range of issues, including “how the United States and the PRC can continue to responsibly manage competition and work together where our interests align, particularly on transnational challenges that affect the international community.”
However, experts and analysts say the meeting is unlikely to produce any major breakthroughs or agreements, as both sides remain locked in a strategic rivalry over trade, technology, human rights, Taiwan, and regional security.
“I don’t think we should expect any game-changing outcomes from this meeting,” said Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “I think the best we can hope for is that the two leaders will agree to keep the lines of communication open, to avoid miscalculation and escalation, and to explore some areas of cooperation, such as climate change, pandemic response, and nuclear nonproliferation.”
Glaser added that the meeting could also serve as an opportunity for Biden to convey his concerns and expectations to Xi on a number of contentious issues, such as China’s coercive actions toward Taiwan, its crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, its alleged human rights abuses in Xinjiang, and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“President Biden should make clear to President Xi that the United States will continue to uphold its interests and values and that it will stand by its allies and partners in the face of China’s assertiveness and aggression,” Glaser said.
On the other hand, Xi is likely to press Biden to respect China’s core interests and red lines and to refrain from interfering in its internal affairs. Xi may also seek assurances from Biden that the U.S. will not support Taiwan’s independence and that it will lift some of the tariffs and sanctions imposed by the previous administration.
“President Xi will probably emphasize that China is not a threat or an enemy to the United States and that the two countries should respect each other’s differences and coexist peacefully,” said Cheng Li, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution. “He will also try to persuade Biden that China is a responsible and constructive player in the international system and that it is willing to cooperate with the U.S. on global challenges.”
Li said that the meeting could also be a chance for the two leaders to build some personal rapport and trust, which could help ease the tensions and mistrust that have plagued the bilateral relationship in recent years.
“Both Biden and Xi are seasoned politicians and diplomats, and they have met several times before when they were vice presidents,” Li said. “They have some familiarity and respect for each other, and they may be able to find some common ground and mutual understanding.”
However, Li cautioned that the meeting will not be a magic bullet that will resolve the deep-rooted and structural problems that underlie the U.S.-China rivalry.
“The meeting is a positive and necessary step, but it is not a panacea,” Li said. “The U.S.-China relationship is facing unprecedented challenges and uncertainties, and it will take a long time and a lot of hard work to stabilize and improve it.”