The death of three US servicemen, and wounding of many others, now piles up the pressure on the US commander-in-chief, President Joe Biden. This marks the first time American troops have been killed by enemy fire since the Israel-Gaza war exploded.
This steep escalation seemed to have been all but unavoidable. Since mid-October, US military bases in Iraq and Syria have repeatedly come under fire by Iran-backed militias, injuring a rising number of US soldiers. The US has repeatedly hit back by striking targets in both countries.
But this time, the US will need to weigh whether to hold Iran itself accountable. It’s an option, and an escalation, laden with significant risk.
“We will hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner of our choosing,” was the US president’s vague first warning.
The US knows it now needs to be seen to do more to safeguard the lives of its servicemen and women. The president’s critics will seize this crisis to accuse him again of being “soft on Iran”. But his presidency has been about fighting distant wars with clear red lines to avoid pulling Americans into a much pricier engagement. Both Washington and Tehran, long locked in hostility, have cautiously avoided direct clash in this current flare-up.
Iran, also under pressure at home, has refrained from its own strikes on Israeli or American sites in retaliation for the killing of its senior Revolutionary Guard commanders, which it blames on Israel. Earlier this month, in its first direct response, it aimed its fire on what was seen as a “soft target” when it hit what it called a base of Israel’s Mossad agency in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The US, backed by the UK and others, already finds itself leading the campaign against Yemen’s Houthis, but that hasn’t stopped the attacks on vessels in the vital Red Sea shipping lane. Now it must face other Iran-backed groups in a way which defends America’s interests but doesn’t set this unstable region on another perilous spiral.